The Evolution of International Law in a Multipolar World: An Analysis of the Munich Security Conference 2025-Mahdi Safdari

Mahdi Safdari - LL.M. Student in International Law at Shahid Beheshti University
2025/10/07

In recent decades, the international system has witnessed a significant shift from a unipolar world—dominated by the United States—to an increasingly multipolar structure. While it remains debatable whether we have fully entered a "multipolar system," the signs of rising powers and emerging centers of influence are unmistakable. Countries such as China, India, Brazil, and international bodies such as the European Union (EU) are asserting themselves as influential players, challenging the dominance of traditional Western powers. As the shift in power towards rising States reconfigures the world towards multipolarity, the normative baseline of the international order is likely to shift away for the US-backed project of spreading liberal democratic values towards a new baseline constructed around a consensus, reached by the array of States that will come to occupy the apex of the international political power structure (Sean Butler, Visions of World Order: Multipolarity and the Global ‘Constitutional’ Framework, 2018, p.13). This evolving dynamic poses crucial questions for the future of international law, international relations, and the role of international institutions like the United Nations. Munich Security Report 2025 has focused on the issue of “Multipolarization” as a possible alternative for the current international order.

A multipolar world refers to a global order in which power is distributed among multiple states or regions, rather than being concentrated in a single hegemon. The President of the PRC believes that an equal and orderly multipolar world means every country can find its place in a multipolar system and play its due role pursuant to international law, so that the process of multipolarization is stable and constructive on the whole. On the other hand, there are suspicions about the future of multipolarity. The UN Secretary-General addressed the General Assembly at the Opening of the General Debate of its seventy-ninth session and stated that in a purgatory of polarity, more and more countries are filling the spaces of geopolitical divides, doing whatever they want with no accountability.  The rise of new global powers has led to a situation where no single nation-state can dictate the terms of international engagement. In a truly multipolar system, power is more diffuse, and the influence of regional powers and coalitions becomes increasingly significant. Perceptions of a multipolar world vary across regions. The Munich Security Index 2025 revealed that citizens in G7 countries express concerns about increased disorder and conflict in a multipolar world, whereas respondents from emerging powers in the Global South view it more optimistically. These differing perspectives influence how nations approach international law, with some advocating for reforms to existing structures and others emphasizing the preservation of established norms.

Multipolarity and International Law

One of the immediate consequences of a shift toward multipolarity is the changing landscape of international law. Historically, international law has been shaped by Western powers, particularly the United States and European countries. However, as new players assert themselves, there is likely to be a push for a more pluralistic and diverse approach to legal frameworks. As fewer states prioritize foreign policies that serve the collective good, and internal divisions further hinder such efforts, the prospects for reducing polarization and guiding multipolarity in a constructive direction remain uncertain. This uncertainty also impacts the evolution of international law, which has transformed from a Eurocentric treaty-based system into a global framework addressing human rights, trade, and environmental protection. While institutions like the UN and WTO promote legal norms, growing multipolar competition complicates enforcement and consensus-building, highlighting the need for adaptable legal mechanisms to maintain global stability. The voices of emerging powers like China and India will challenge the existing norms, especially on issues like sovereignty, human rights, and the balance of power in global governance. In a multipolar world, the development of international law may become more complex and contested. New legal norms could emerge as different regions and powers emphasize various priorities. For instance, China’s emphasis on state sovereignty and non-interference could reshape how international law deals with issues like humanitarian intervention or the Responsibility to Protect (R2P). Similarly, the global south may push for legal reforms that address inequality in international trade, climate change agreements, and debt restructuring. Considering this change in approach, international law will have to adapt to the complexities of a multipolar world. While traditional norms of international law emphasize cooperation among states, the rise of competing powers could lead to more fragmentation in legal frameworks. The United Nations may struggle to maintain its legitimacy as a forum for conflict resolution, while emerging powers may seek alternative mechanisms for resolving disputes. International treaties and conventions may also evolve to reflect the changing priorities of different global actors.

The United Nations, as the most prominent inter-governmental organization, will face significant challenges in a multipolar world. The UN was established in the aftermath of World War II with a structure that reflected the dominance of the U.S., the Soviet Union, and their allies. The Security Council, with its five permanent members (P5), has long been a symbol of this power imbalance. In a multipolar world, calls for reform of the Security Council have grown louder, with many emerging powers demanding greater representation and influence. Reforming the UN to reflect the realities of a multipolar world is no easy task. The P5, with their veto power, are unlikely to give up their privileges without significant resistance. Meanwhile, emerging powers like India, Brazil, and South Africa have pushed for changes to ensure more equitable representation in the Security Council and other UN bodies. The General Assembly has also emphasized the importance of the issue in various decisions. However, achieving consensus on such reforms remains elusive, with various geopolitical tensions complicating the process. The ICJ as the judicial organ of the UN can have a crucial role in a new international order. The International Court of Justice (ICJ) can act as a stabilizing force in an increasingly multipolar world. The Court's authority remains vital as global power structures shift, ensuring legal accountability among states. However, enforcement depends on state cooperation. Recent cases, like South Africa’s complaint against Israel, demonstrate the ICJ’s continued relevance in a fragmented global order.

As the world becomes more multipolar, there is likely to be a shift in the global governance system. Traditional multilateral institutions like the World Trade Organization (WTO) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) may face increasing pressure to reform in order to accommodate the interests of rising powers. This could lead to the creation of new platforms for global cooperation that reflect the changing balance of power, such as the BRICS bloc or the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). One of the most contentious issues in international law and relations is the balance between human rights and state sovereignty. In a multipolar world, emerging powers may prioritize sovereignty over human rights, as seen in China’s stance on non-interference in the domestic affairs of other states. This could lead to a reevaluation of the principles underpinning human rights law and international humanitarian law, potentially weakening the global consensus on issues like humanitarian intervention and the protection of refugees.

In a multipolar world, regional organizations will play an increasingly important role in global governance. The European Union, the African Union, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), and other regional bodies will become key players in shaping the global order. These organizations can offer more flexible, region-specific solutions to problems and serve as platforms for smaller powers to assert their influence in the international arena. The European Union has adopted documents in order to determine its policy toward a multipolar world. For instance, the 2024 Annual Report on the Implementation of the Common Foreign and Security Policy is one of these documents. Published on 10 February 2025, this report by the European Parliament's Committee on Foreign Affairs evaluates the EU's foreign and security policy actions in 2024, providing insights into the EU's strategic direction in a multipolar world.

Conclusion: The Complex Future of International Law

The transition to a multipolar world presents both opportunities and challenges for international law. While the increasing influence of new powers offers a chance for a more diverse and representative global legal system, it also creates tensions and challenges in terms of governance, enforcement, and coherence. The future of international law will depend on how states, international organizations, and non-state actors navigate these complexities and find ways to cooperate while maintaining their own strategic interests. As we move further into a multipolar world, international organizations and legal frameworks must adapt to the evolving global landscape. This may involve reforms to existing institutions, the creation of new ones, and the development of legal norms that reflect the interests of a broader range of global actors. The success of these efforts can ensure that global governance remains relevant and equitable in a multipolar world. Will emerging powers work within existing frameworks, or will they push for new paradigms? The answer to this type of questions will determine the effectiveness of international law in addressing the challenges of the 21st century. But no matter the approach of these powers, as Christoph Heusgen the Chairman of the Munich Security Conference puts it in the foreword of the Munich Security Report 2025, “ If we want to preserve common ground in a world shaped by more actors and increasing polarization, we all have to recommit to those rules laid down in the Charter of the United Nations and the Universal Declaration of Human Rights that everyone has agreed to.”